Which will get here first, the air or sea shipment?

I shouldn't even have to ask this question, but at this point, it is anyone's guess.  Just like with our move to Doha, the company gives us two shipments:  an air shipment, which is supposed to take 1-2 weeks and is for 'immediate needs' items, and a sea shipment, which usually takes 6-8 weeks, and contains all the rest of our junk.  Both shipments were packed on September 21.  I received a notice from our shipping company yesterday that our sea shipment will arrive in Sakhalin on October 22!  That is just 4 weeks!  Well, what about our air shipment?  It is still in Doha as I type this.  It is full of - you guessed it - items that I am really needing right now.  Yes, I have already called and chewed on them, and today got a notice that it is due to leave tomorrow for Amsterdam.  I am pretty irritated that it has taken them almost 4 weeks to even send it.  They should have just put it on the boat with our container!  Oh, well, as long as I eventually receive it.  

So which will arrive first?  I don't have an ETA on the air shipment yet, but Shane is betting on the sea shipment.  Stay tuned...